Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins … Joe Mauer and Buster Posey … Gary Sheffield and Billy Wagner … Duane Kuiper and Mike Krukow.
I don’t know if they all have Cooperstown on their minds. But you let me know loud and clear that you have their Cooperstown cases on your minds — by firing a bunch of really fun and thoughtful questions at me for this edition of the Baseball Hall of Fame mailbag.
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You had questions. I have your answers. So let’s go!
Questions were edited for clarity and length.
Can Chase Utley become the first post-expansion position player to make it into the Hall with fewer than 2,000 hits? — Noah G.
Noah, I’ve said many times that if I had to make a living betting on how Hall of Fame voters will vote, I’d have been in Chapter 11 years ago. But my gut feeling, based on the vibe I’m sensing since the new Hall ballot was announced, is that there’s a Chase Utley Hall of Fame speech coming … one of these years.
As I wrote last week in my Five Things to Watch column, Utley might be the most intriguing first-time candidate on this whole ballot, for several reasons. The first is the cool and historic storyline that brings him and his longtime partner in double-play crime, Jimmy Rollins, onto this ballot at the same time.
The second is a subplot to the Rollins/Utley debate: What gets modern voters’ engines revving these days — Rollins’ more traditional selling points (Hits! Homers! Steals! Gold Gloves! MVP trophy!) or Utley’s new-age voter charisma? (Five straight seven-WAR seasons! JAWS! Defensive Runs Saved! All that winning!)
But then there’s a third reason, which is really what you’re asking. Chase Utley is the litmus test of how much voters have evolved and where Hall voting is headed. We care less and less about our favorite counting numbers. We care more and more about big peaks and rate stats. So it’s all right in his hot zone.
That evolution is likely going to get Utley elected. But will he be the first player in five decades to get elected without 2,000 hits? Or will Andruw Jones beat him to the podium? Or will it take Buster Posey’s arrival on the ballot in three years? I’ll get back to you with that prediction when we see how the votes fall in eight weeks.
Jimmy Rollins received 12.9 percent of the vote last year, his second time on the ballot. (Jed Jacobsohn / Getty Images)Why is it that Jimmy Rollins has not gotten more support to this point? He has a Rookie of the Year, an MVP, Gold Gloves, plenty of counting stats, and was a key figure on a championship team. I really just don’t get it. — Daniel G.
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If we’re going to break down Utley, we might as well pair him with Rollins, because that’s how these two guys rolled for close to two decades. I think Rollins is another litmus test for voters, Daniel. He’s just the mirror image of that guy he turned all those double plays with.
I’ve written about this so many times, so why not do it again now that Utley’s presence has refocused so much attention on Rollins? Here goes: There hasn’t been a single other shortstop in the history of baseball who had Jimmy Rollins’ career. And by that I mean …
He won an MVP award . . . and four Gold Gloves. … He’s the only shortstop in the 2,400-Hit/200-Homer/400-Steal/800-Extra-Base-Hit Club. … He got the most hits in the history of the franchise that drafted him (the Phillies). … He owns the longest hitting streak by a shortstop (38 games) since 1894 … And, as you mentioned, he turned the ignition pretty much every day of every year for a Phillies team that paraded through Center City and won 42 more games than the next-winningest National League team over its five-season run of domination (2007-11).
But are voters even looking at those things anymore? Because, if they’re looking at, say, Rollins’ career WAR (47.6, via Baseball Reference), they see a guy hanging out in the same neighborhood as Tony Fernandez and Jim Fregosi — two really good players … who wound up collecting just eight Hall of Fame votes combined.
Except I think the question is, did those metrics capture Rollins’ true value? He was a leadoff man who didn’t walk, so his OBP and OPS don’t look attractive. The defensive metrics, especially late in his career, don’t reflect his off-the-charts defensive IQ or his reliability at such a pivotal position. And that leads some voters to question whether he deserved all the awards he won.
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So which set of numbers really paints the portrait of the player Rollins was? He has eight years left on the ballot. So there’s plenty of time to figure that out, isn’t there?
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Recognizing he had a relatively short career and the second half came as a first baseman, are you surprised there isn’t more overwhelming support for Joe Mauer? A catcher with three batting titles, world-class on-base skills, a sterling reputation behind the plate and as a person? Arbitrary hits or games-played milestones seem to muddy what was one of the most unique and dominant decades as a catcher in history. — Paul P.
Paul, that final sentence was so perfectly worded, especially because it should remind everyone that Joe Mauer spent a whole decade as a catcher. And no catcher in history had a decade like Mauer’s first 10 seasons.
Three batting titles and an MVP award? Another season in which he led the American League in on-base percentage? A 135 OPS+ for 10 years, as a catcher? A .323/.405/.469/.873 slash line? The list of catchers who ever did that, over 10 seasons, has one name: Joe Mauer.
Joe Mauer’s first 10 seasons form the crux of his case. (Jamie Squire / Getty Images)But the Mauer skeptics, to me, seem more focused on the back end of his career than the decade behind the plate that should be the essence of his case. They also seem to be manipulating his games-played breakdown to make it appear that he spent fewer seasons as a catcher than he actually did.
Did the Twins get him at-bats at both first base and DH in those first 10 seasons? Of course they did. They needed his presence in their lineup. But to take those games and make it appear that he spent half his career as something other than a catcher is 100 percent misleading.
As a wise man recently said, that’s just an attempt to “muddy what was one of the most unique and dominant decades as a catcher in history.” Eloquently stated, Paul!
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I really don’t understand why Gary Sheffield is not in yet. I guess he’s in the steroids “gray area” and gets knocked for his (defense). Whatever. The guy ripped, was one of the most genuinely feared hitters for years and has the career numbers to boot. Hit for average and power. Won a batting title. Finished top three in MVP voting 20 years apart. Was on a World Series winner. Don’t even get me started on a Harold Baines comparison (that works well for many candidates). What are your thoughts and do you have any sense if Sheffield can get to 75 percent in his last year of eligibility? — Adam L.
You said it well, Adam. I don’t need to sum up Gary Sheffield’s pros and cons. You just did that!
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Look, we can’t gloss over what a brutal defender he was. We have statistical evidence that shows he was probably the worst defensive outfielder in modern history. So that’s a real thing.
And although voters are more willing to overlook that “steroids gray area” stuff than they used to be, I don’t think there’s any other explanation for why he never got elected. Everybody in history who has had Gary Sheffield’s career as a hitter is in the Hall … unless (repeat after me) they had ties to performance-enhancing drugs.
So do I think 20 percent of this electorate is magically going to change its mind on Sheffield after nine years of not doing that? That’s the longest of long shots, even though I should mention (full disclosure) that I’ve voted for him myself these past few years after changing my own mind.
How much is Billy Wagner’s postseason performance a detriment to his Hall of Fame chances? — Richard T.
Do you think there will be consistency when it comes to relief pitchers, or will it always be about feel as much as anything else? For example, the difference between Joe Nathan, who fell off the ballot immediately, and Billy Wagner, who is looking like he’s going to get inducted soon, isn’t really all that wide, and in the coming years, Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen both compare favorably to Wagner, but for whatever reason don’t seem to be talked about in the same way. — Anthony F.
Does it make sense to group these two Billy Wagner questions together? Let’s go with yes. Let’s also take the second question first.
For one thing, I didn’t feel good about seeing Joe Nathan join the one-and-done club, either, Anthony. But I also disagree that he and Wagner had nearly the same career.
One quality I always look for in every candidate is simple: Did this player have a historically significant career? So why do I vote for Wagner? Well, among all left-handed pitchers in the entire live-ball era (with at least 900 innings), you know where he ranks? First in ERA and WHIP and opponent batting average and strikeout rate.
Not fourth. Not 14th. First! Is that historically significant enough for you? It is for me. Joe Nathan had a great career. But he didn’t have that career.
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Now, about Wagner’s postseason issues … I’m so glad you asked, Richard. Look, there’s no way to argue that a 10.03 postseason ERA is anything but ugly. But is it possible to argue that it’s at least slightly misleading? I think it is.
You know how many save opportunities Wagner’s team presented him with in eight trips to the postseason? That would be four. Total. He blew the first of those, in the second postseason game he ever pitched in (1998 NLDS Game 2 — a game his team won, by the way). He converted the other three (all with the 2006 Mets).
Otherwise, check out the games he pitched in. Most were lopsided, in both directions. Which isn’t quite the way it worked for Mariano Rivera. So the bottom line is, I’m not deducting nearly as many points for Wagner’s October adventures as some of my fellow voters are. Maybe they’ve never looked as closely as I have. So if they’re reading this now … you’re welcome!
The Giants won three World Series in five years: 2010, 2012, 2014. Will any player on those teams make it into the Hall? I assume Bruce Bochy is a lock. — Michael A.
Bruce Bochy is the lockiest lock ever, Michael. So you have that right. But I see only one player on those teams with a realistic case. And that’s Buster Posey.
But if you remember where this column began — with a question about whether Chase Utley would be the first Hall of Famer in a half-century who fell south of 2,000 hits —then here comes an even trickier question:
Is it possible Posey could still get elected when he had only 1,500 hits (on the nose)?
Ralph Kiner finished his career with just 1,451 — and still got elected by the writers (on his 15th try) in 1975. Of course, he also won seven home run titles in a row. So he had that going for him.
Or maybe Roy Campanella, in some ways, is a better comp. He got 1,422 hits in 12 seasons — as a catcher. And he got elected by the writers in 1969. But his career was also cut short at age 35 by a car crash that left him permanently paralyzed. So it’s hard to make an exact comparison with Posey, who walked away from the game voluntarily after his age-34 season.
Buster Posey retired after the 2021 season. (Ron Chenoy / USA Today)On one hand, Posey wouldn’t seem to have either the counting numbers or modern metrics on his side. There is no modern precedent for electing a position player with 1,500 hits, 158 career homers and 44.8 WAR to the Hall. And that will be a huge hurdle for Posey to clear.
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On the other hand, the guy does have three rings. And an MVP trophy. And a Rookie of the Year award. And an eight-season peak (2010-17) in which he slashed .309/.377/.475/.873, with a 136 OPS+ and an average bWAR of nearly five wins a season. So what’s the argument that Posey was not the Best Catcher in Baseball for pretty much a decade?
I haven’t fully dug in on his case yet. But as of today, I’d lean toward voting for him. And if Utley opens the door to the Who Needs 2,000 Hits wing of the Hall, that only helps him. But if Posey can’t convince the counting-number crowd … or if Madison Bumgarner doesn’t make a stunning comeback … the Giants could be one of those rare championship teams with no Hall of Fame players. And that just feels wrong. Doesn’t it?
Speaking of the Giants …
OK, we know the rules for the Frick Award … so does that mean that Duane Kuiper and Mike Krukow cancel each other out? Will there ever be a path for the two of them to go in together? (I’m openly showing my San Francisco Giants bias, I know.) — Sarah H.
Screw the rules! Why can’t Kruk and Kuip go into the Hall together? — Juan R.
Wow, Andy Baggarly sure stirred it up this week by writing about these guys, didn’t he? But I’m glad he did, because if we were scripting this movie, there would be only one way to tug at every Giants fan’s heartstrings. Of course, Duane Kuiper and Mike Krukow should go into the Hall of Fame together. How is that even debatable?
This is no time to adhere to the rules for everybody else. All rules like this make sense … unless they don’t make common sense. So for just one of these two inseparable friends and broadcasting legends to win the Frick Award, while forcing the other to wait, is awful. And making them compete against each other for one award? That’s even worse.
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That feels to me like the equivalent of honoring Abbott and Costello’s fabled “Who’s On First” schtick (which the Hall does, incidentally) by celebrating only the Abbott one-liners one year and then getting around to adding the Costello lines some other time. Doesn’t two sometimes equal one? That’s not math. That’s just understanding reality.
So Juan and Sarah, I doubt we’ll get our wish. But I’m with you. The rules are the rules are the rules, I know … but sometimes we can all do better by making an exception to the rules. Is it safe to say this would be one of those times? It is!
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(Top photo of Chase Utley: Hunter Martin / Getty Images)
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